US Senate 2020 Election
This page is for the 2020 primary and general election of the U.S. Senate seat (Class 2) currently held by Republican Cory Gardner. It will be a seat that will be watched nationally and potentially treated as a bellwether. It had served as such when Gardner was first elected to it in 2014 in the second wave of Tea Party election cycles. Gardner defeated the incumbent Democrat Mark Udall, who had himself flipped the seat from GOP control in 2008.
Due to the vote in the 2016 General Election to amend the state constitution to eliminate the presidential caucus, the 2020 Caucus will be about this U.S. Senate seat as it is what will be the effective top-of-ticket position.
U.S. Senate seats are not districted. They represent and are voted by registered voters throughout the entire state.
Contents
[hide]General Background
The U.S. Senate has 2 seats for every state. With 50 states, there are 100 seats in the body. Terms last 6 years with no limits on terms won and served. The U.S. Senate is divided into three classes: Class 1, Class 2, and Class 3. This is due to election cycles. Every 2 years is a regular federal election. The U.S. House has all 435 seats up every two years, but the senate has one-third up every two years. One cycle, Class 1 seats are up, two years later are Class 2, and two years after that are Class 3.
Colorado has Class 2 and Class 3 seats. Michael Bennet has the Class 3 seat, which will be up in 2022.
The U.S. Senate, as of the 2018 election, has a balance of power of +6. Going into the 2019 session, the GOP holds 53 seats (plus the Vice President to break ties, should enough Republican Senators break ranks). The Democrats have 47, which includes two independents who caucus with Democrats (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine). This means that U.S. Senate Democrats need to hold their caucus 100%, plus get 4 GOP senators to flip in order to pass or deny any legislation, while also avoiding the Vice Presidential tie-breaking.
In 2020, there will be 12 Democratic-held seats and 22 Republican-held seats up or election. This appears favorable to Democrats overall, but in terms of seats that are vulnerable, Democrats have a higher percentage of vulnerable seats than Republicans do. About half of the Democratic seats up are vulnerable. Less than one-fourth of Republican-held seats are potentially vulnerable. (FiveThirtyEight, using single digit scores.)
However, Cory Gardner's seat is often a fixture at the top of national lists for most vulnerable seat in the country, a distinction typically shared with fellow incumbent Republican Senator--Susan Collins of Maine.
Primary
Tuesday March 3rd, 2020 are major party caucuses, according to state statute. For the majority of parties and counties, delegate selection will be based on candidate support for U.S. Senator. For most counties, delegates will advance to County Assemblies, and from there to State Assembly.
There are 3 ways U.S. Senate candidates in either the Republican or Democratic parties candidates can gain ballot access for the primary in the state of Colorado:
- STATE ASSEMBLY ONLY - Achieve at least 30% of the vote at State to advance to the primary ballot.
- PETITION ONLY - Must have at least 1,500 verified signatures of eligible voters registered to the same party who have also not signed another petition for another candidate per each congressional district. (1,500 x 7 Congressional districts = 10,500 total signatures)
- STATE ASSEMBLY AND PETITION - Achieve the requirements of petition, plus receive at least 10% of the final vote at State Assembly.
Any eligible candidate can submit (or withdraw) their name for State Assembly by 10 days prior to the State Assembly vote.
From there candidates who meet the respective thresholds will advance to the party primaries, where they can now also garner support of unaffiliated voters (who can only choose ONE party primary to vote in).
Republican Party
| Name | Issues Focused On | Selected Experience | Endorsements | Campaign Contact Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Gardner (i) (Has not formally announced, but is presumed to run) (FEC Filings) |
Current U.S. Senator for Colorado (Official Twitter) Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee |
Jeff Bezos, Founder and CEO of Amazon | Website YouTube (970) 663-2679 | |
| Rumored/Exploring Candidates | ||||
(i) = incumbent
Democratic Party
| Name | Issues Focused On | Selected Experience | Endorsements | Campaign Contact Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorena Garcia (FEC Filings) |
Issues Page on Official Website Wage Equity Single-Payer Healthcare Unrestricted Access to Women's Healthcare Eliminate Electoral College Free Tuition to State Colleges Reinstatement of Tribe Sovereignty Shift to Renewable Energies Social Equity and LGBTQ Rights Clear Path to Citizenship End the War on Drugs and eliminate private prisons Government Accountability and Transparency Term Limits |
Website Contact Page | ||
| Mike Johnston (FEC Filings) |
Website | |||
| Dustin Leitzel (FEC Filings) |
Issues Page on Facebook Renewable Energy Believes healthcare is a basic right Pro-Choice Diversity Pledges to pay summer interns |
Website (Broken link) | ||
| Keith Pottratz (FEC Filings) |
Issues Page on Facebook Better funding to public schools Government Transparency Help Homeless Veterans "Pro-2nd Amendment" Mental Health Screenings for Gun Ownership |
Website | ||
| Andrew Romanoff (FEC Filings) |
FEC filing was said to be to update previous run, but party operatives say there's been contact established on a potential candidacy. |
Website [ Contact Page] [ Instagram] | ||
| Trish Zornio (FEC Filings) |
Emerge Colorado alum (Class of 2018) | Website Online Contact Page |
Third Parties
Some requirements for third parties differ. The Assembly process appears to be statutorally similar. The major difference are in the signature amount requirements for those petitioning. (Still must be eligible electors, registered to the respective party, and has not signed any other petitions for U.S. Senator.)
- PETITION - 1000 or 2% of votes cast (whichever is less). This is not specified by districts, so this is the total amount.
- 2% of votes cast for candidates of U.S. Senator in 2014 is 40,822, therefore 1,000 is lesser so 1,000 will be the requirement for 2020.
| Party | Name | Issues Focused On | Selected Experience | Endorsements | Campaign Contact Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rumored/Exploring Candidates | |||||
Previous Election Results
For this specific seat (Class 2).
| Seat | Current Holder | Next Election | 2014 Election | 2008 Election (Presidential Year) (Obama +8.95) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate-CO (Class 2) |
Cory Gardner (Republican) |
2020 | 1.95% (48.21%) Mark Udall 46.26% Gaylon Kent 2.59% (Libertarian) Steve Shogan 1.44% (Unaffiliated) Raul Acosta 1.18% (Unaffiliated) Bill Hammons 0.31% (Unity Party) Defeated Dem Incumbent |
10.3% (52.8%) (Mark Udall) Bob Schaffer 42.49% Douglas "Dayhorse" Campbell 2.56% (Constitution) Bob Kinsey 2.14% (Green) (Total Write-Ins 135 votes) Flipped from GOP to Dem control |
Other Statewide Seat Election Results
Gardner Voting History
- How Gardner Votes compared to Trump (Five Thirty Eight)
- Confirmations through May 11, 2017 (The New York Times)
- Voting Record (Voting Smart)
- On The Issues (On The Issues)
Polling
Gardner Favorability Ratings
Sources:
2020 Election Polling
Campaign Finance
Hard Money
"Hard Money" is a term used to describe contributions and disbursements directly made to or paid from the official campaign.
The FEC has a guide on campaign finance limitations. This section would fall under the "Candidate Committee" portion.
U.S. Senate candidates committees file quarterly reports until the month before the general election.
Future Filing Dates:
- 4/15/19
- 7/15/19
- 10/15/19
- 1/31/20
- 4/15/20
- 7/15/20
- 10/15/20
- 10/15/20-10/31/20 (48-hour Notice Period - $1,000 contribution per source)
- 10/22/20
- 12/03/20
- 1/31/21
Primary
Republican
Democratic
Third Parties
As of 12/31/19 there are no third party candidates filed with the FEC.
General
Republican
Democratic
Third Parties
Sources:
Link to all candidates' FEC filings
Soft Money
"Soft Money" refers to donations and disbursements made to or from a committee formed outside the formal campaign for either a candidate or ballot initiative, but may support or oppose either a candidate or specific topic (or both), but due to federal law cannot directly collaborate with candidates or their campaigns. These committees span all across the political spectrum, supporting or opposing a wide variety of interests.
Examples are unions (typically support living wages and workplace safety), Democrats for Education Reform / Raising Colorado (education reform), Americans for Prosperity (Most associated with the Koch Brothers and mainstreaming libertarianism. Its precursor organization created the Tea Party in 2002)
The FEC has a guide on campaign finance limitations. This section would fall under the "PAC (SSF and nonconnected)" portion.
