US Senate 2020 Election
This page is for the 2020 primary and general election of the U.S. Senate seat (Class 2) currently held by Republican Cory Gardner. It will be a seat that will be watched nationally and potentially treated as a bellwether. It had served as such when Gardner was first elected to it in 2014 in the second wave of Tea Party election cycles. Gardner defeated the incumbent Democrat Mark Udall, who had himself flipped the seat from GOP control in 2008.
Due to the vote in the 2016 General Election to amend the state constitution to eliminate the presidential caucus, the 2020 Caucus will be about this U.S. Senate seat as it is what will be the effective top-of-ticket position.
U.S. Senate seats are not districted. They represent and are voted by registered voters throughout the entire state.
Contents
General Background
The U.S. Senate has 2 seats for every state. With 50 states, there are 100 seats in the body. Terms last 6 years with no limits on terms won and served. The U.S. Senate is divided into three classes: Class 1, Class 2, and Class 3. This is due to election cycles. Every 2 years is a regular federal election. The U.S. House has all 435 seats up every two years, but the senate has one-third up every two years. One cycle, Class 1 seats are up, two years later are Class 2, and two years after that are Class 3.
Colorado has Class 2 and Class 3 seats. Michael Bennet has the Class 3 seat, which will be up in 2022.
The U.S. Senate, as of the 2018 election, has a balance of power of +6. Going into the 2019 session, the GOP holds 53 seats (plus the Vice President to break ties, should enough Republican Senators break ranks). The Democrats have 47, which includes two independents who caucus with Democrats (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine). This means that U.S. Senate Democrats need to hold their caucus 100%, plus get 4 GOP senators to flip in order to pass or deny any legislation, while also avoiding the Vice Presidential tie-breaking.
In 2020, there will be 12 Democratic-held seats and 22 Republican-held seats up or election. This appears favorable to Democrats overall, but in terms of seats that are vulnerable, Democrats have a higher percentage of vulnerable seats than Republicans do. About half of the Democratic seats up are vulnerable. Less than one-fourth of Republican-held seats are potentially vulnerable. (FiveThirtyEight, using single digit scores.)
However, Cory Gardner's seat is often a fixture at the top of national lists for most vulnerable seat in the country, a distinction typically shared with fellow incumbent Republican Senator--Susan Collins of Maine.
Primary
Tuesday March 3rd, 2020 are major party caucuses, according to state statute. For the majority of parties and counties, delegate selection will be based on candidate support for U.S. Senator. For most counties, delegates will advance to County Assemblies, and from there to State Assembly.
There are 3 ways U.S. Senate candidates in either the Republican or Democratic parties candidates can gain ballot access for the primary in the state of Colorado:
- STATE ASSEMBLY ONLY - Achieve at least 30% of the vote at State to advance to the primary ballot.
- PETITION ONLY - Must have at least 1,500 verified signatures of eligible voters registered to the same party who have also not signed another petition for another candidate per each congressional district. (1,500 x 7 Congressional districts = 10,500 total signatures)
- STATE ASSEMBLY AND PETITION - Achieve the requirements of petition, plus receive at least 10% of the final vote at State Assembly.
Any eligible candidate can submit (or withdraw) their name for State Assembly by 10 days prior to the State Assembly vote.
From there candidates who meet the respective thresholds will advance to the party primaries, where they can now also garner support of unaffiliated voters (who can only choose ONE party primary to vote in).
Republican Party
| Name | Issues Focused On | Selected Experience | Endorsements | Campaign Contact Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Gardner (i) (Has not formally announced, but is presumed to run) (FEC Filings) |
Current U.S. Senator for Colorado (Official Twitter) Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee |
Jeff Bezos, Founder and CEO of Amazon | Website YouTube (970) 663-2679 | |
| Rumored/Exploring Candidates | ||||
(i) = incumbent
Democratic Party
Third Parties
Some requirements for third parties differ. The Assembly process appears to be statutorally similar. The major difference are in the signature amount requirements for those petitioning. (Still must be eligible electors, registered to the respective party, and has not signed any other petitions for U.S. Senator.)
- PETITION - 1000 or 2% of votes cast (whichever is less). This is not specified by districts, so this is the total amount.
- 2% of votes cast for candidates of U.S. Senator in 2014 is 40,822, therefore 1,000 is lesser so 1,000 will be the requirement for 2020.
| Party | Name | Issues Focused On | Selected Experience | Endorsements | Campaign Contact Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rumored/Exploring Candidates | |||||
Previous Election Results
For this specific seat (Class 2).
| Seat | Current Holder | Next Election | 2014 Election | 2008 Election (Presidential Year) (Obama +8.95) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate-CO (Class 2) |
Cory Gardner (Republican) |
2020 | 1.95% (48.21%) Mark Udall 46.26% Gaylon Kent 2.59% (Libertarian) Steve Shogan 1.44% (Unaffiliated) Raul Acosta 1.18% (Unaffiliated) Bill Hammons 0.31% (Unity Party) Defeated Dem Incumbent |
10.3% (52.8%) (Mark Udall) Bob Schaffer 42.49% Douglas "Dayhorse" Campbell 2.56% (Constitution) Bob Kinsey 2.14% (Green) (Total Write-Ins 135 votes) Flipped from GOP to Dem control |
Other Statewide Seat Election Results
| Seat | Current Holder | Next Election | 2016 Election (Presidential Year) (Clinton +4.91) |
2010 Election |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate-CO (Class 3) |
Michael Bennet (Democrat) |
2022 | 5.66% (49.97%) Darryl Glenn 44.31% Lily Tang Williams 3.6% (Libertarian) Arn Menconi 1.34% (Green) Bill Hammons 0.34% (Unity) Dan Chapin 0.3% (Unaffiliated) Paul Noel Fiorino 0.12% (Unaffiliated) |
1.68% (48.08%) Ken Buck 46.4% Bob Kinsey 2.19% (Green) Maclyn "Mac" Stringer 1.27% (Libertarian) Jason Napolitano 1.09% (INR) Charley Miller 0.64% (Unaffiliated) J. Moromisato 0.32% (Unaffiliated) Total Write-Ins 83 votes |
| Seat | Current Holder | Next Election | 2018 Election | 2016 Election (Presidential Year) |
2014 Election | 2012 Election (Presidential Year) |
2010 Election | 2008 Election (Presidential Year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President | Donald Trump (Republican) Democrats have won 2016, 2012, 2008 |
2020 | X | 4.91% (48.16%) (Hillary Clinton) Donald Trump 43.25% Gary Johnson 5.18% (Libertarian) Jill Stein 1.38% (Green) Other Third Party 2.03% |
X | 5.36% (51.49%) (Barack Obama) Mitt Romney 46.13% Gary Johnson 1.38% (Libertarian) Jill Stein 0.29% (Green) Other Third Party 0.71% |
X | 8.96% (53.66%) (Barack Obama) John McCain 44.7% Bob Barr 0.45% (Libertarian) Cynthia McKinney 0.12% (Green) Other Third Party 1.07% |
| U.S. Senate-CO (Class 2) |
Cory Gardner (Republican) |
2020 | X | X | 1.95% (48.21%) Mark Udall 46.26% Gaylon Kent 2.59% (Libertarian) Steve Shogan 1.44% (Unaffiliated) Raul Acosta 1.18% (Unaffiliated) Bill Hammons 0.31% (Unity Party) Defeated Dem Incumbent |
X | X | 10.3% (52.8%) (Mark Udall) Bob Schaffer 42.49% Douglas "Dayhorse" Campbell 2.56% (Constitution) Bob Kinsey 2.14% (Green) (Total Write-Ins 135 votes) Flipped from GOP to Dem control |
| U.S. Senate-CO (Class 3) |
Michael Bennet (Democrat) |
2022 | X | 5.66% (49.97%) Darryl Glenn 44.31% Lily Tang Williams 3.6% (Libertarian) Arn Menconi 1.34% (Green) Bill Hammons 0.34% (Unity) Dan Chapin 0.3% (Unaffiliated) Paul Noel Fiorino 0.12% (Unaffiliated) |
X | X | 1.68% (48.08%) Ken Buck 46.4% Bob Kinsey 2.19% (Green) Maclyn "Mac" Stringer 1.27% (Libertarian) Jason Napolitano 1.09% (INR) Charley Miller 0.64% (Unaffiliated) J. Moromisato 0.32% (Unaffiliated) Total Write-Ins 83 votes |
X |
| Governor | Jared Polis (Democrat) |
2022 | 10.62% (53.42%) Walker Stapleton 42.8% Scott Helker 2.75% (Libertarian) Bill Hammons 1.02% (Unity) |
X | 3.34% (49.29%) (John Hickenlooper) Bob Beauprez 45.95% Matthew Hess 1.94% (Libertarian) Harry Hempy 1.3% (Green) Mike Dunafon 1.18% (Unaffiliated) Paul Noel Fiorino 0.29% (Unaffiliated) Total Write-Ins 31 votes |
X | 14.67% (51.05%) (John Hickenlooper) Tom Tancredo 36.38% (Constitution) Dan Maes 11.14% Jaimes Brown 0.74% (Libertarian) Jason R. Clark 0.48% (Unaffiliated) Paul Noel Fiorino 0.19% (Unaffiliated) Total Write-Ins 86 votes |
X |
| Secretary of State | Jena Griswold (Democrat) |
2022 | 8.01% (52.7%) Wayne Williams 44.69% Amanda Campbell 2.08% (Constitution) Blake Huber 0.53% (Approval Party) Defeated GOP incumbent First Dem elected to this position in 60 years. |
X | 2.36% (47.34%) (Wayne Williams) Joe Neguse 44.98% Amanda Campbell 3.95% (Constitution) Dave Schambach 3.73% (Libertarian) |
X | 5.65% (49.52%) (Scott Gessler) Bernie Buescher 43.87% Amanda Campbell 6.6% (Constitution) Defeated Dem incumbent Dem was appointed |
X |
| Attorney General | Phil Weiser (Democrat) |
2022 | 6.44% (51.58%) George Brauchler 45.14% William F. Robinson III 3.28% (Libertarian) Flip from GOP control to Dem |
X | 9.05% (51.43%) (Cynthia Coffman) Don Quick 42.38% David K. Williams 6.19% (Libertarian) |
X | 12.65% (56.32%) (John Suthers) Stan Garnett 43.67% |
X |
| Treasurer | Dave Young (Democrat) |
2022 | 7.3% (52.23%) Brian Watson 44.93% Gerald F. Kilpatrick 2.85% (Constitution) Flip from GOP control to Dem |
X | 4.93% (49.87%) (Walker Stapleton) Betsy Markey 44.94% David Jurist 5.18% (Libertarian) |
X | 1.4% (50.7%) (Walker Stapleton) Cary Kennedy 49.3% Defeated Dem incumbent |
X |
| CU Regent, At-Large (Seat 1) |
Heidi Ganahl (Republican) |
2022 | X | 2.22% (51.11%) Alice Madden 43.34% |
X | X | 6.59% (50.52%) (Steve Bosley) Melissa Hart 43.93% Jesse B. Wallace 5.54% (Libertarian) |
X |
| CU Regent, At-Large (Seat 2) |
Lesley Smith (Democrat) |
2024 | 8.93% (51.95%) Ken Montera 43.02% James K. Treibert 3.82% (Libertarian) Christopher E. Otwell 1.21% (Unity) |
X | X | 2.65% (42.25%) (Stephen Ludwig) Brian Davidson 39.6% Daniel Ong 4.74% (Libertarian) Tyler Belmont 2.5% (Constitution) |
X | X |
Gardner Voting History
- How Gardner Votes compared to Trump (Five Thirty Eight)
- Confirmations through May 11, 2017 (The New York Times)
- Voting Record (Voting Smart)
- On The Issues (On The Issues)
Gardner Favorability Ratings
| Date | Source | Favorable % | Unfavorable % | Neutral | Undecided / Don't Know | Margin of Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | ||||||
| 7/1-9/25/18 | Morning Consult | 39% | 37% | x | 24% | 1% |
| 4/1-6/30/18 | Morning Consult | 38% | 37% | x | 25% | 1% |
| 4/1-6/18/18 | Morning Consult | 48% | 29% | x | 23% | 2% |
| 1/1-3/31/18 | Morning Consult | 40% | 36% | x | 24% | 2% |
| 2017 | ||||||
| 11/9-11/15/17 | American Politics Research Lab (CU Boulder) | 25% (4% Strongly Approve) |
48% (23% Strongly Disapprove) |
x | 27% | 3.5% |
| 10/1-12/31/17 | Morning Consult | 41% | 36% | x | 22% | 2% |
| 7/1-9/30/17 | Morning Consult | 40% | 39% | x | 22% | 2% |
| Jan-Mar 2017 | Morning Consult | 49% | 30% | x | 21% | 2% |
| Jan-Mar 2017 | Morning Consult | 49% | 30% | x | 21% | 2% |
| 2016 | ||||||
| 10/17-10/24/16 | American Politics Research Lab (CU Boulder) (Though results are in 2017 survey) |
43% (7% Strongly Approve) |
24% (8% Strongly Disapprove) |
x | 33% | (Unknown) |
Sources:
